Forex Analysis & Reviews: 23.04.2025 - Bitcoin Took Its Chance

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Equipe InstaForex Loprais - Participante oficial do Rali Dakar

23.04.2025 12:08 AM

Bitcoin Took Its Chance

Slow and steady wins the race! Bitcoin quietly broke through to its highest levels since early March amid Donald Trump's attacks on Jerome Powell. When the independence of the Federal Reserve is at stake and confidence in the U.S. dollar starts to erode—prompting investors to rethink their portfolios—cryptocurrency stands to benefit over other risky assets. BTC/USD has outpaced U.S. stock indices and continues to push north.

While April may become the worst second month of spring for the Dow Jones since 1932, and the S&P 500 hasn't fared this poorly after the inauguration of any U.S. president since 1928, Bitcoin is capitalizing on the investor exodus from U.S. assets. The catalyst for the BTC/USD rally came from Trump's accusations against the Fed Chair. According to him, Powell is always late and "a major loser."

Bitcoin vs. S&P 500 Performance

The Republican demands that the Fed immediately lower the federal funds rate, citing a cooling economy and slowing inflation. However, various financial assets react differently to Trump's attempt to make Powell the scapegoat. U.S. stock indices are falling, as Fed independence has long symbolized American exceptionalism. If that's dismantled, investors will no longer feel safe. Accelerating capital outflows from the U.S. would put further pressure on the S&P 500.

Bitcoin, however, is a different story. It strengthens when trust in fiat currencies—particularly the U.S. dollar—declines. Furthermore, the Fed serves as a lender of last resort, assisting creditors in crisis. If that safety net is removed, depositors could be shaken. Meanwhile, as some crypto companies seek banking licenses and aim to offer payment services, the shift of capital into digital assets looks increasingly logical.

Still, it's too early to fall into euphoria. U.S. stock markets were closed on Friday, and markets in many other countries remained shut on Monday. Liquidity is low, which raises the risk of sharp swings in asset prices. There's no guarantee that technical factors don't drive BTC/USD's rally.

I believe the primary driver of the plunge in U.S. stocks is the capital outflow driven by the White House's uncertain policy and recession fears. Bitcoin can benefit from this, find its niche, and gradually reduce its correlation with the S&P 500, especially now that the crypto industry is receiving increasing support from Donald Trump. This is a man who moves trillions of dollars with social media posts—why shouldn't digital assets capitalize on his loyalty?

Technically, on the daily chart, BTC/USD forms a reversal pattern known as Anti-Turtles with a breakout above fair value—indicating strong bullish intent. Long positions entered from the $83,170 level should be held as long as the price remains above $85,000.

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*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.